Search for: All records

Abstract The 2023/24 El Niño commenced with an exceptionally large warm water volume in the equatorial western Pacific, comparable to the extreme 1997/98 and 2015/16 events, but did not develop into a super El Niño. This study highlights the critical role of contrasting Northern Pacific Meridional Mode (NPMM) conditions in this divergence. Warm NPMM conditions during the 1997/98 and 2015/16 events created a positive zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradient in the equatorial western-central Pacific and enhanced Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) propagation, driving sustained westerly wind bursts (WWBs) and downwelling Kelvin waves that intensified both events. In contrast, the cold NPMM during 2023/24 induced a negative SST gradient and suppressed MJO activity, resulting in weaker WWBs and limited eastward wave activity, preventing the event from reaching super El Niño intensity. A 2,200-year CESM1 pre-industrial simulation corroborates these observational findings, underscoring the importance of NPMM interference in improving El Niño intensity predictions. 

Abstract Multi-year marine heatwaves (MHWs) in the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) are major climate events with lasting ecological and economic effects. Though often seen as local Pacific phenomena, our study shows their persistence depends on trans-basin interactions between the North Pacific and North Atlantic. Using observational data and climate model experiments, we find that prolonged MHWs occur as sequential warming episodes triggered by atmospheric wave trains crossing ocean basins. These wave trains alter surface heat flux, initiating MHWs in the GOA and changing North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs). In turn, Atlantic SST anomalies reinforce wave activity, fueling subsequent MHW episodes in a feedback loop. This mechanism appears in historical events (1949–52, 1962–65, 2013–16, and 2018–22), highlighting MHWs as a trans-basin phenomenon. Our findings link GOA MHWs to trans-basin atmospheric wave dynamics and identify North Atlantic SSTs as a potential predictor of their duration. 

Abstract In convective quasi-equilibrium theory, tropical tropospheric temperature perturbations are expected to follow vertical profiles constrained by convection, referred to as A-profiles here, often approximated by perturbations of moist adiabats. Differences between an idealized A-profile based on moist-static energy conservation and temperature perturbations derived from entraining and nonentraining parcel computations are modest under convective conditions—deep convection mostly occurs when the lower troposphere is close to saturation, thus minimizing the impact of entrainment on tropospheric temperature. Simple calculations with pseudoadiabatic perturbations about the observed profile thus provide useful baseline A-profiles. The first EOF mode of tropospheric temperature (TEOF1) from the ERA-Interim and AIRS retrievals below the level of neutral buoyancy (LNB) is compared with these A-profiles. The TEOF1 profiles with high LNB, typically above 400 hPa, yield high vertical spatial correlation (∼0.9) with A-profiles, indicating that tropospheric temperature perturbations tend to be consistent with the quasi-equilibrium assumption where the environment is favorable to deep convection. Lower correlation tends to occur in regions with low climatological LNB, less favorable to deep convection. Excluding temperature profiles with low LNB significantly increases the tropical mean vertical spatial correlation. The temperature perturbations near LNB exhibit negative deviations from the A-profiles—the convective cold-top phenomenon—with greater deviation for higher LNB. In regions with lower correlation, the deviation from A-profile shows an S-like shape beneath 600 hPa, usually accompanied by a drier lower troposphere. These findings are robust across a wide range of time scales from daily to monthly, although the vertical spatial correlation and TEOF1 explained variance tend to decrease on short time scales. 

Tropical rainfall variability is closely linked to meridional shifts of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and zonal movements of the Walker circulation. The characteristics and mechanisms of tropical rainfall variations on centennial to decadal scales are, however, still unclear. Here, we reconstruct a replicated stalagmite-based 2,700-y-long, continuous record of rainfall for the deeply convective northern central Indo-Pacific (NCIP) region. Our record reveals decreasing rainfall in the NCIP over the past 2,700 y, similar to other records from the northern tropics. Notable centennial- to decadal-scale dry climate episodes occurred in both the NCIP and the southern central Indo-Pacific (SCIP) during the 20th century [Current Warm Period (CWP)] and the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), resembling enhanced El Niñ o -like conditions. Further, we developed a 2,000-y-long ITCZ shift index record that supports an overall southward ITCZ shift in the central Indo-Pacific and indicates southward mean ITCZ positions during the early MWP and the CWP. As a result, the drying trend since the 20 th century in the northern tropics is similar to that observed during the past warm period, suggesting that a possible anthropogenic forcing of rainfall remains indistinguishable from natural variability. 

Abstract We incorporate a parameterization to quantify the effect of three‐dimensional (3‐D) radiation‐topography interactions on the solar flux absorbed by the surfaces, including multiple reflections between surfaces and differences in sunward/shaded slopes, in the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4). A sensitivity experiment is carried out using CCSM4 with the prescribed sea surface temperature for year 2000 to investigate its impact on energy budget and surface temperature over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). The results show that the topographic effect reduces the upward surface shortwave flux and, at the same time, enhance snowmelt rate over the central and southern parts of TP. Comparing to observations and the ensemble of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), we found that CMIP5 models have a strong cold bias of 3.9 K over TP, partially induced by the strong reflection of shortwave fluxes. We show that the inclusion of topographic effect reduces the substantial biases of upward shortwave fluxes and surface air temperatures over TP by 13% in the CCSM4 model.